Richard II

Dick Cheney has gone public in his post-vice presidential role, most notably suggesting that the new president's policies are making the country less safe, and taking a position on the internal divisions currently eating away at the Republican Party. Cheney suggested a preference for the ideas espoused by Rush Limbaugh over those of Gen. Colin Powell, whose Republican cred was irreparably damaged (according to Cheney) during the campaign season. Fair enough, or at least until you consider Joe Lieberman's status in the Senate after running despite *losing his party's nomination* in the primary and then campaigning for the Republican candidate in the aforementioned 2008 campaign. The take-home message: American political parties are meaningful until they are politically inconvenient. Unless you're Colin Powell and trying to express a sentiment about the good of the nation, seemingly uninterested in elective office.

But I'm not writing about Powell today, even though he is a vastly more appealing figure than Cheney. I'm writing about Cheney. I'm not writing about him to lambaste him for his stated preference for an extremist windbag over an accomplished statesman. Lots of people, including the Washington Post's Eugene Robinson, have already done that. I'm writing about Cheney because I think he will run for president (at least for the Republican nomination) in 2012.

Cheney's life as the wizard behind the curtain didn't begin with his vice-presidency. He has served in the cabinet and as chief of staff. His executive branch experience is unimpeachable, even if that is the only thing about him that fits that description. What is interesting is not Cheney's choice to express opinions, but the manner in which he is going about it.

Unlike even notable spotlight-moth Bill Clinton, Cheney's statements are drawing a lot of attention to himself. They are clearly publicity driven and political. Although Cheney's words emphasize the national interest, this is no bid for the role of elder statesman (an art perfected by Jimmy Carter, but emulated to degree, by other former Presidents including George H.W. Bush). And this is clearly not the party-building circuit, making phone calls or appearances in order to loosen the wallets of the moneyed Republican faithful (a presumably rewarding Venn diagram if ever there were one).

Cheney is attempting to build his own political base in order to make a bid for the top of the ticket in 2012. I'm not saying this will be successful, even at the primary level. But I predict he will throw his hat into the ring. Cheney will be 69 (ETA: 71 - sorry- jra)then, but politics has yet to reliably prove to be unwelcoming to old white men. No one thought Cheney was a serious contender for VP in 2000 either- he was supposed to be heading up the search committee. Furthermore, Article II hardly prohibits those closely connected to a discredited administration from seeking the highest office to finish the job. After all, the Democrats narrowly escaped a repeat performance of the Clintons. Four years after Jimmy Carter left office in a cloud of malaise after losing to a divorced actor elected by the religious right, his vice-president Walter Mondale secured the Democratic nomination. Vice-presidents, in particular, have a way of translating second-banana status, however deserved, into something more.